Why a plan for 1,200 homes in one part of the West Bank is causing such a huge global backlash

A new Israeli move over a patch of land just east of Jerusalem has triggered warnings from the UN and several major Western countries. The row is about far more than housing numbers, because critics say this one area could change the map of the West Bank in a way that makes a future Palestinian state much harder to achieve.

What has happened

Israel has opened tenders for the construction of about 1,200 settlement homes in an area known as E1, in the occupied West Bank. The step has drawn broad international condemnation because the site is seen as strategically important.

The issue had already been publicly signalled at a ceremony at a settlement last September, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: "We are going to fulfill our promise that there will be no Palestinian state" and added: "This place belongs to us."

The latest announcement prompted the UN secretary general to say the plans posed an "existential threat" to a future Palestinian state. The UK, France, Germany, Italy and Canada also issued a joint statement calling the plans "unacceptable" and saying they would "drive a wedge through the West Bank". The European Union echoed that view.

Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, welcomed those statements and called on the countries involved to take "concrete measures to halt the implementation of the E1 plan".

Why E1 matters so much

The controversy around E1 is not simply about adding more homes. Opponents say building there would in effect split the West Bank in two and isolate East Jerusalem from the rest of the territory.

They argue that it would cut off the north of the West Bank from the south and block development in the centre of a contiguous Palestinian urban area linking Ramallah, East Jerusalem and Bethlehem. That is why the land has long been treated as especially sensitive.

Under international law, all settlements are illegal, and Israel held back for decades on building in E1 under international pressure. The latest move is being viewed by critics as a major test of whether that restraint has now ended.

The wider settlement push

The dispute over E1 sits inside a much bigger story. Israel has controlled the West Bank since it was captured during the 1967 war against a coalition of Arab states. Since then, Israel has built about 160 settlements housing 700,000 Jews.

There has been a noticeable increase in the pace of settlement construction since 2022, when Netanyahu returned to power at the head of a right-wing, pro-settler coalition. The pace increased further after the start of the Gaza war, which was triggered by Hamas's 7 October 2023 attack on Israel.

Satellite imagery analysis has shown examples of that expansion elsewhere in the territory. In Tzofim, a settlement in the north west of the West Bank, around 185 new buildings have been constructed since 2022. Around Kochav Hashahar, the settlement has expanded in several directions, with new roads, houses and a settler outpost on nearby land.

There are also hundreds of outposts, which are illegal under both Israeli and international law, that have been established since the 1990s. Dozens of them have later been retrospectively legalised by the Israeli government.

Roads, control and "facts on the ground"

Settlement growth is also being reinforced by changes in how the West Bank is administered. Over recent years, much of that responsibility has shifted from military control to a civilian authority headed by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who is on the far right.

That shift has been accompanied by a large increase in roads crossing the West Bank. Those roads connect settlements, but they also cut through Palestinian towns and villages. Smotrich has said this "ensures that the settlements will not remain on paper, but will be established on the ground".

In May, the Israeli government announced more than a billion shekels, equal to $360 million or £246 million, for new road construction in the West Bank. An official press release said the intention was the "strengthening of their grip on the territory".

For Palestinians in the West Bank and supporters of Palestinian statehood, all of this feeds a fear that expanding settlements, growing infrastructure and changing administration are creating "facts on the ground" that could make a Palestinian state unviable.

Why the timing is under such scrutiny

The political timing is also important. The tender for E1 has been issued just a couple of months before tightly contested elections in Israel.

Peace Now, an Israeli anti-settlement watchdog that has challenged the plans in court, said the government was trying to sign contracts with contractors before the October elections so it would be much harder for the next government to cancel construction.

According to some senior Israeli ministers, blocking Palestinian statehood is not a side effect but part of the goal. In 2024, Smotrich said construction in E1 would help "establish sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, first on the ground and then through legislation" and added: "My life's mission is to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state".

The tensions around settlement growth have also coincided with an escalation of settler violence against Palestinians. In one recent case, two Palestinian homes were besieged by settlers and had their water and power cut. US Ambassador Mike Huckabee, who is usually a prominent supporter of settlements, denounced that attack as a "criminal and terrorist act".

For Netanyahu and his coalition partners, moves like the E1 tender may appeal to their political base. Even if electoral gains do not follow, critics fear the deeper effect may be to lock in changes on the ground that are difficult to reverse.