GTA 6 could trigger 1.5 million sick days in the US and cost firms $1 billion
A GTA 6 forecast says 1.5 million Americans may call in sick on launch day, with US businesses facing up to $1 billion in losses.
GTA 6 is already shaping up to be more than a huge game launch. One forecast says the release could spark 1.5 million sick days in the US alone, with businesses staring at a hit worth up to $1 billion.
1. Around 1.5 million Americans are expected to call in sick for GTA 6
The wildest prediction around GTA 6 is not just how much money it could make, but how many people may decide work can wait. One analysis says about 1.5 million people in the US intend to phone in sick on the day the game launches.
That launch is set for November 19, and the date falls on a Thursday. That detail matters, because it opens the door to a long weekend for anyone tempted to stay home and start playing straight away. The clip below may add to the hype, but the figure most likely to make employers sweat is the number of workers who may simply disappear for the day.
The estimate only covers the US. No worldwide number is given, which leaves open the question of how much larger the total could be once players in other countries are taken into account.
2. The financial hit to businesses could reach $1 billion in a single day
The same calculation puts a huge price on those no-shows. According to figures attributed to Professor José García Montalvo of Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, American businesses could lose as much as $1 billion, or about £750 million, in revenue because of people taking the day off to play.
The analysis also suggests the US could see productivity drop by around 2% on launch day. That figure is tied specifically to time lost because people are playing the game.
And that may not even be the full picture. Some players are likely to have booked leave properly instead of pretending to be ill, which means the wider effect of the release on workplaces could go beyond the workers counted as sick.
3. The biggest temptation is expected to hit a very specific group
The forecast does not treat all workers the same. It says the people most likely to fake illness for launch day are men aged 18 to 30.
Among different sectors, technology workers are described as the most enthusiastic single group. That makes sense in the context of a release that has been building massive anticipation among players who closely follow big gaming launches.
Even offices that do not suddenly empty out may still feel the effect. The expectation is that plenty of employees who show up on time will still be distracted by GTA 6, which means attention at work could take a hit even without a formal absence.
4. Gaming history suggests this kind of launch panic is not new
There is a long-running story that new Dragon Quest games cannot be released on a weekday in Japan because too many schoolchildren skipped class to play them. That story is described as a myth, but it is linked to a real episode. After Dragon Quest 3, hundreds of children were reportedly arrested for truancy, and later games in the series were released on Saturdays until 2012.
Rockstar has its own example much closer to home. When GTA 5 launched in 2013, 6% of workers aged 18 to 35 in major US cities took time off to play it.
That earlier release is one reason the new prediction does not feel especially far-fetched. GTA has already shown it can pull players away from their usual routine on launch day.
5. Oddly, Rockstar could make about the same amount that businesses lose
The $1 billion loss estimate stands out for another reason. It is almost the same amount Rockstar Games and parent company Take-Two Interactive are expected to make from GTA 6 on its first day.
Some projections go much higher over a longer opening stretch, with estimates of up to $4.5 billion, or £3.36 billion, across the first seven days. There is no official budget figure for GTA 6, but rumours have ranged from $1 billion to more than $3 billion. If those sales forecasts are close to reality, the game could outstrip even the highest rumoured budget in a week.
That is why GTA 6 is being tipped as not only the biggest video game release of all time, but also the most profitable. GTA 5 is still the best-selling traditional video game ever made, with more than 230 million copies sold and an estimated $10 billion in revenue. GTA 6 is already being predicted to move past that pace quickly, especially if a PC version and an online component are announced, which many expect early next year.
