Study Suggests 'God Of Chaos' Asteroid Apophis Could Hit Earth In 2029 — We’ll Know For Sure In 3 Years

The possibility of asteroids impacting Earth has long been a concern among scientists and the public. While many asteroids pass harmlessly by our planet, some come quite close, raising fears of potential collisions. The asteroid Apophis, also known as the "God of Chaos," is one such object.

This 1,100-foot space rock, roughly the size of the Eiffel Tower, has gained attention due to its scheduled close flyby with Earth in 2029. Although the likelihood of it hitting our planet is extremely low, new research suggests that it is not entirely impossible.

Apophis was first discovered in 2004 and is classified as a "potentially hazardous" asteroid. Named after an ancient Egyptian god symbolizing darkness and disorder, it has captured the imagination of many who wonder what might happen if it were to strike Earth.

While Apophis is not large enough to cause planet-wide destruction, it is certainly big enough to obliterate a city and have severe global consequences. According to NASA, the asteroid will pass just under 20,000 miles from Earth on April 13, 2029.

This distance is less than a tenth of the gap between Earth and the moon, meaning it will come uncomfortably close to some of our satellites. Despite these concerns, initial observations confirmed that Apophis would not collide with Earth during its 2029 approach.

However, asteroids are subject to changes in their trajectories, especially if smaller space rocks strike them. This phenomenon was demonstrated in 2022 when NASA’s DART mission successfully altered the course of the asteroid Dimorphos by intentionally crashing a spacecraft into it.

In the case of Apophis, researchers have expressed concerns that a similar event could occur over the next five years, potentially pushing the asteroid onto a collision path with Earth.

The asteroid Apophis, often called the "God of Chaos," is expected to make a dangerously close approach to Earth in 2029.

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A recent study by astronomer Paul Wiegert from Western University in Canada investigated this scenario. Wiegert, an expert in moving objects within the solar system, used computer simulations to calculate the probability of Apophis being hit by another asteroid before its 2029 flyby. His research revealed that this is highly unlikely but not impossible.

The odds of a collision that could alter Apophis’s path are around one in a million. However, the chance that such an impact could cause Apophis to strike Earth is even slimmer, at less than one in a billion.

As we learn more about asteroids like Apophis, it's crucial to engage the public in discussions about planetary defense. Dr. Ben McMahon, a planetary scientist with expertise in planetary impact events, points out that educating the public can foster greater awareness and support for necessary funding. He notes, “Public understanding and advocacy are key for sustaining long-term projects focused on asteroid detection and deflection.”

Promoting outreach programs and community workshops can help demystify space science while encouraging more people to take an interest in safeguarding Earth from potential threats.

The asteroid Apophis, highlighted in yellow, will pass by Earth in 2029 at a distance closer than some satellites, represented in blue, that orbit our planet. The purple line marks the orbit of the International Space Station.

In an earlier study, Wiegert and his team had already ruled out the possibility of known asteroids colliding with Apophis. However, the risk posed by unknown asteroids, which are difficult to detect due to their small size or position near the sun, remains. These undiscovered objects could pose a threat by knocking Apophis off its predicted course.

The ESA's Herschel Space Observatory spotted asteroid Apophis as it neared Earth on January 5 and 6, 2013.

Astrophysicist Dr. Amy Mainzer, a leading expert at the University of Arizona's Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, emphasizes the importance of monitoring near-Earth objects like Apophis. She highlights that understanding the asteroid's trajectory is critical for assessing potential collision risks. Mainzer states, “We need to enhance our observational capabilities to better predict the paths of these asteroids.”

Investing in advanced telescopes and radar systems can significantly improve our ability to track these celestial bodies and prepare for any potential threats in the future.

Although the likelihood of a collision is minimal, astronomers will continue to monitor Apophis closely. The asteroid is currently challenging to observe because of its proximity to the sun, but by 2027, it will be visible again, allowing researchers to refine their predictions.

By then, they will have a clearer understanding of whether Apophis’s trajectory has changed and if there is any risk of a collision with Earth.

Analysis & Alternative Approaches

In light of the potential risks posed by asteroids like Apophis, experts agree that proactive measures are essential. Building a robust global network of telescopes and fostering international collaborations can enhance our predictive capabilities. Additionally, public engagement in scientific discussions can create a more informed citizenry that supports planetary defense initiatives.

By investing in education and technology, we can not only improve our monitoring systems but also inspire future generations to contribute to the field of planetary science, ensuring a safer future for our planet.