Why Ukraine's Independence Day became a test of whether Putin is feeling cornered

Ukraine marked its 35th Independence Day on Monday with celebrations overshadowed by continued Russian attacks and warnings of possible new threats. The moment also brought a sharper political argument into view, with one former US official saying Vladimir Putin appears to be reacting nervously as Ukraine pushes deeper into Russian territory.

A national holiday held under the threat of attack

The anniversary marks Ukraine’s Aug. 24, 1991 declaration of independence from the Soviet Union. This year’s observance came with heightened security concerns after Ukraine’s Security Service warned of possible terrorist attacks ahead of the holiday.

Ukrainian authorities urged people to be careful on public transport, watch for possible sabotage and avoid sharing images or video that could expose military positions. Carrie Filipetti, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State who is now executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition, said big public gatherings tied to patriotism and support for the Ukrainian state naturally raise the risk.

Even with that backdrop, several European leaders traveled to Kyiv for Independence Day events. Among them were European Council President António Costa and leaders from Finland, Lithuania, Norway, Denmark, Estonia and Latvia. Filipetti said that level of attendance sent a clear message that international backing for Ukraine has not faded.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used the occasion to say Ukraine wants peace, but is not willing to accept Moscow’s demands. The holiday therefore became more than a symbolic anniversary. It also turned into a public display of resistance, allied support and basic vigilance while the war continues.

Why one analyst says Putin looks "panicked"

Filipetti argued that recent Ukrainian gains help explain why Russia has stepped up strikes inside Ukraine, especially against civilian areas. In her view, Ukraine has made important advances over the course of this year and has managed to hit much deeper inside Russian territory, including areas close to Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Ukraine has also targeted Russian economic infrastructure. The sites mentioned include warehouses belonging to online retailers Wildberries and Ozon. Putin has warned that Ukrainian attacks on Russian economic targets open a "Pandora’s box," while Kyiv says long range strikes are necessary to disrupt Russian logistics.

Filipetti said those developments have put pressure on the Kremlin and left Putin anxious when he feels boxed in. She described Russia’s recent behavior as an attempt to hold onto control by striking more inside Ukraine and trying to weaken Ukrainian will and capability.

She pointed to a Russian drone strike on a crowded shopping center in Kryvyi Rih, Zelenskyy’s hometown, on Friday. That attack killed at least 16 people and injured 130. Filipetti linked the strike to her wider argument that Russia is not mainly focused on military assets in these cases, but on trying to wear down Ukrainians by attacking civilian life.

What was happening on the battlefield around the anniversary

The holiday arrived after another deadly exchange of drone and missile attacks. Ukrainian officials said Russian attacks killed at least seven people. Russian officials, meanwhile, said a Ukrainian drone strike in the Krasnodar region killed three.

Filipetti said Russia’s objective is to drain Ukraine of people, equipment and will before Russia suffers the same losses to a greater degree. She also argued that, despite the violence, Russia has made almost no territorial gains this year.

On manpower, Filipetti said Russian forces are losing more soldiers each month than they can recruit. She added that Moscow has been relying on North Korean, Cuban and other foreign fighters to help fill the gap.

Taken together, the picture around Ukraine’s Independence Day was one of defiance under pressure. The country marked a milestone in its history while facing bombardment, warnings of sabotage and the possibility of more attacks. At the same time, supporters of Ukraine used the anniversary to underline that Kyiv is still backed by European allies and still prepared to resist, even as the war enters another dangerous stretch.